Hi, it’s Rich Allen from
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com/?hop=jtime2323.
Recently I spoke to you about some long-held myths in the NFL and how unreliable they really are. If you want to have true success in betting on football, and sports in general, you have to stay away from these ‘hunch’ plays or theories.
The true road to success lies in one thing: the numbers. That’s why my system is based entirely on numbers. No emotions, no half-cocked ideas, no gimmicks. To view in-full details about the system, check out:
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com/?hop=jtime2323
Looking at the NFL though, studies show there is another statistical bias that can be taken advantage of and it occurs later on in the NFL season. This advantage has to do with, drum roll please … the home ‘dog.
You’ve seen me talk about home underdogs on video and I’ve written about it extensively. Overall it’s a terrible strategy to follow, with winning percentages falling well below the needed 52.7% needed to make even the smallest profit with 10 cent juice.
However, research has shown that later on in the NFL season the Home Underdog play starts to make more sense. Up until Week 14 a bet on the Home ‘Dog will only cover 51.4% of the time, that’s a losing proposition. But after Week 14 that percentage jumps to a remarkable (and profitable!) 60%. This is a huge advantage to have going into the late season schedule. If you’re lucky enough to find a home underdog in the playoffs, these come in at a success rate of 77.8%.
The bottom line is it doesn’t pay off to buy into the hype about certain strategies or hot tips. But when you do find one that works, and has worked over a long period of time, you’d be foolish not to take advantage of it.
All the best,
Rich Allen
http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com/?hop=jtime2323
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